‘Alita: Battle Angel’ Poised To Be First Massive Box Office Bomb Of 2019 & Last For Fox As A Studio

If you follow box office numbers like some of us Playlist nerds, then you’ve been anxiously awaiting the release of “Alita: Battle Angel.” No, not because you’re expecting James Cameron and Robert Rodriguez to break records and score some sort of massive opening. It’s because of the opposite, actually. Ever since ‘Alita’ moved release dates by two months, many analysts have predicted that the sci-fi/action film will be 2019’s first major flop. And the most recent tracking seems to back that up.

According to a report from The Wrap, ‘Alita’ is expected to lose anywhere from $150 million to $200 million based on its expected low box office take. The report comes from a third-party analyst that is predicting that the film, which opens on February 14, will have a five-day domestic take that will likely fall below $25 million. If that’s the case, combined with what is shaping up to be terrible critical reviews, the film will likely end up with a domestic total between $45-50 million. Oof.

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Now, let’s take a look at some of the reasons many have predicted ‘Alita’ was going to lay an egg at the box office. First, the budget for the film is estimated anywhere from $150 million to $200 million, due to the incredible amount of VFX and motion capture. Plus, we all know that Cameron isn’t the type of filmmaker that skimps when it comes to production value. Based on that sort of budget, to break even, most films have to do worldwide box office hovering around $800 million. It’s expected that ‘Alita’ will fall way, way below that.

The other factor is the aforementioned word-of-mouth. While we are sure there will be some fans that enjoy the film, the critical reception has been mixed-to-bad, with a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 58%. Of course, we always have to preface that by saying that the Tomatometer is far from a be-all-end-all number, but for casual moviegoers, the score is a quick indicator of a film’s worth.

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And finally, the other major factor that could work against ‘Alita’ is the competition. Keep in mind, the sci-fi/action film found its way to a Valentine’s Day release because it was delayed from its original December 21 date. The reason it was moved was because that date featured the release of “Aquaman,” “Mary Poppins Returns,” “Bumblebee,” and the second weekends of “Mortal Engines” and “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse,” which would have been an absolute death sentence for ‘Alita.’

That being said, the February 14 date isn’t that great for Cameron’s flick, in terms of competition. ‘Alita’ faces off against the second weekend for “LEGO Movie 2,” and the openings of “Happy Death Day 2U” and the rom-com “Isn’t It Romantic?” Obviously, none of those stand out as direct competition, but during a romantic holiday like Valentine’s Day, will enough people go out of their way to see ‘Alita’ when much better date movies like the animated ‘LEGO’ sequel, the rom-com, and a fun horror movie exist? Tough to say.

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Either way, we’re looking at a very, very disappointing opening for “Alita: Battle Angel.” And for Fox, the studio will end its reign (as it’s being absorbed by Disney any week now) with a massive bomb.