2019 Spirit Awards Predictions: ‘Eighth Grade,’ Regina King, Toni Collette

For the first time in almost a decade, the Film Independent Spirit Awards are charting their own course.  You won’t see a lot of potential Oscar winners on the stage of this year’s ceremony.  Outside of a few acting and screenwriting nominees, there is very little overlap this time around and, frankly, it’s a welcome sight.   It also means predicting the winners just got a wee bit harder.

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Normally, you can predict most of the Spirit Award winners by going with the most commercially successful movie or performance in said films.  The Film Independent membership are movie-friendly, but that hasn’t stopped them from anointing “Get Out,” “Moonlight,” “Birdman,” “12 Years A Slave,” “Silver Linings Playbook,” “The Artist,” “Black Swan” or “Precious” this decade.  All were films that earned over $27 million at the box office and that’s the outlier with “Moonlight.”  The second lowest grosser was actually “Birdman” at $42 million.  This crop of nominees tops out with two nominees between just $13-14 million, a significant difference.

Keeping that in mind as well as the fact anyone can pay and become a member of Film Independent, let’s get started, shall we?

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BEST FEATURE
(Award given to the producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)

Eighth Grade
Producers: Eli Bush, Scott Rudin, Christopher Storer, Lila Yacoub

First Reformed
Producers: Jack Binder, Greg Clark, Gary Hamilton, Victoria Hill, David Hinojosa, Frank Murray, Deepak Sikka, Christine Vachon

If Beale Street Could Talk
Producers: Dede Gardner, Barry Jenkins, Jeremy Kleiner, Sara Murphy, Adele Romanski

Leave No Trace
Producers: Anne Harrison, Linda Reisman, Anne Rosellini

You Were Never Really Here
Producers: Rosa Attab, Pascal Caucheteux, Rebecca O’Brien, Lynne Ramsay, James Wilson

Who will win: “Eighth Grade”
Who should win: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Upset: “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Lowdown: This is very close, but our guess is because “Eighth Grade” was released in the summer and has been available in numerous other venues than your local art house it sneaks by Barry Jenkins’ impressive drama.

BEST FIRST FEATURE
(Award given to the director and producer)

Hereditary
Director: Ari Aster
Producers: Kevin Frakes, Lars Knudsen, Buddy Patrick

Sorry to Bother You
Director: Boots Riley
Producers: Nina Yang Bongiovi, Jonathan Duffy, Charles D. King, George Rush, Forest Whitaker, Kelly Williams

The Tale
Director/Producer: Jennifer Fox
Producers: Sol Bondy, Lawrence Inglee, Mynette Louie, Oren Moverman, Simone Pero, Reka Posta, Laura Rister, Regina K. Scully, Lynda Weinman

We the Animals
Director: Jeremiah Zagar
Producers: Andrew Goldman, Christina D. King, Paul Mezey, Jeremy Yaches

Wildlife
Director/Producer: Paul Dano
Producers: Andrew Duncan, Jake Gyllenhaal, Riva Marker, Oren Moverman, Ann Ruark, Alex Saks

Who will win: “Hereditary”
Who should win: “Sorry to Bother You”
Upset: “Sorry to Bother You”
Lowdown:  Unless the membership has an aversion to awarding a horror film (very possible) this should go to A24’s big summer hit.  If not, Boots Riley‘s surprising art-house smash will take the honor.

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD – Given to the best feature made for under $500,000. (Award given to the writer, director and producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)

A Bread Factory
Writer/Director/Producer: Patrick Wang
Producers: Daryl Freimark, Matt Miller

En el Séptimo Día
Writer/Director/Producer: Jim McKay
Producers: Alex Bach, Lindsey Cordero, Caroline Kaplan, Michael Stipe

Never Goin’ Back
Writer/Director: Augustine Frizzell
Producers: Liz Cardenas, Toby Halbrooks, James M. Johnston

Sócrates
Writer/Director/Producer: Alex Moratto
Writer: Thayná Mantesso
Producers: Ramin Bahrani, Jefferson Paulino, Tammy Weiss

Thunder Road
Writer/Director: Jim Cummings
Producers: Natalie Metzger, Zack Parker, Benjamin Weissner

Who will win: No idea
Who should win: No idea
Upset: No idea
Lowdown:  Full disclosure, haven’t seen any of these very indie features and guessing most of the membership hasn’t either. Pick ’em.

BEST DIRECTOR

Debra Granik
Leave No Trace

Barry Jenkins
If Beale Street Could Talk

Tamara Jenkins
Private Life

Lynne Ramsay
You Were Never Really Here

Paul Schrader
First Reformed

Who will win: Debra Granik
Who should win: Debra Granik or Barry Jenkins
Upset: Tamara Jenkins or Barry Jenkins
Lowdown: Barry Jenkins could easily take this, but sometimes the membership reward a heralded piece of work and Debra Granik has been championed throughout the season for “Leave No Trace.”  If Tamara Jenkins wins it means more voters saw the fine “Private Life” on Netflix than anyone anticipated.

BEST SCREENPLAY

Richard Glatzer (Writer/Story By), Rebecca Lenkiewicz & Wash Westmoreland
Colette

Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Tamara Jenkins
Private Life

Boots Riley
Sorry to Bother You

Paul Schrader
First Reformed

Who will win: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Who should win: Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
Upset: Boots Riley or Paul Schrader
Lowdown: “Sorry to Bother You” actually made more money, but Nicole Holofcener is an indie film legend and “Can You Ever Forgive Me?” recently surprised at the WGA Awards.   Paul Schrader also falls into that category, but “First Reformed” was seen by less than half the audience that saw “Can You.”  If Boots Riley wins we’re still 100% playing by the box office rules even with these smaller films (it made double what “Can You” earned).

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY

Bo Burnham
Eighth Grade

Christina Choe
Nancy

Cory Finley
Thoroughbreds

Jennifer Fox
The Tale

Quinn Shephard (Writer/Story By), Laurie Shephard (Story By)
Blame

Who will win: Bo Burnham
Who should win: Bo Burnham
Upset: None
Lowdown:  This is Bo Burnham’s all the way.  He’s been one of the darling’s of the awards season circuit, won the WGA and, oh yeah, it’s far and away the biggest hit of the bunch.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Ashley Connor
Madeline’s Madeline

Diego Garcia
Wildlife

Benjamin Loeb
Mandy

Sayombhu Mukdeeprom
Suspiria

Zak Mulligan
We the Animals

Who will win: Sayoumbhu Mukdeeprom
Who should win: Sayoumbhu Mukdeeprom
Upset: Diego Garcia
Lowdown:  This is a tough call.  “Suspiria” should win, but Deigo Gracia could surprise for “Wildlife.”

BEST EDITING

Joe Bini
You Were Never Really Here

Keiko Deguchi, Brian A. Kates, Jeremiah Zagar
We the Animals

Luke Dunkley, Nick Fenton, Chris Gill, Julian Hart
American Animals

Anne Fabini, Alex Hall, Gary Levy
The Tale

Nick Houy
Mid90s

Who will win: You Were Never Really Here
Who should win: The Tale
Upset: The Tale
Lowdown: The nominated trio’s work on “The Tale” is crazy impressive considering the film’s story structure, but our gut tells us Joe Bini’s work on “You Were Never Really Here” takes it.

BEST FEMALE LEAD
Glenn Close
The Wife

Toni Collette
Hereditary

Elsie Fisher
Eighth Grade

Regina Hall
Support the Girls

Helena Howard
Madeline’s Madeline

Carey Mulligan
Wildlife

Who will win: Toni Collette
Who should win: Tony Collette
Upset: Glenn Close
Lowdown: Toni Collette has been lauded as one of the biggest Oscar snubs this year and “Hereditary” is far and away the biggest hit of the mix.  If sentiment means anything to Spirit Awards voters, however, Glenn Close could surprise.

BEST MALE LEAD
John Cho
Searching

Daveed Diggs
Blindspotting

Ethan Hawke
First Reformed

Christian Malheiros
Sócrates

Joaquin Phoenix
You Were Never Really Here

Who will win: Ethan Hawke
Who should win: Joaquin Phoenix
Upset: John Cho
Lowdown: “Searching” is the biggest hit here, but Ethan Hawke has earned numerous year-end critics awards for “First Reformed.” And, like, Collette, Hawke was on many of the biggest snubs of the Oscar nominations lists.  That being said, John Cho was at the center of a film that was substantially more popular than “First Reformed”  and that could be the difference.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Kayli Carter
Private Life

Tyne Daly
A Bread Factory

Regina King
If Beale Street Could Talk

Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie
Leave No Trace

J. Smith-Cameron
Nancy

Who will win: Regina King
Who should win: Regina King
Upset: Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie
Lowdown:  Thomasin Harcourt McKenzie has a slight chance of winning, but it’s very slight.  This is Regina King’s win all the way.

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Raúl Castillo
We the Animals

Adam Driver
BLACKkKLANSMAN

Richard E. Grant
Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Josh Hamilton
Eighth Grade

John David Washington
Monsters and Men

Who will win: Richard E. Grant
Who should win: Richard E. Grant
Upset: Adam Driver
Lowdown: Richard E. Grant will likely lose on Oscar Sunday to Mahershala Ali so this should be his moment, but Adam Driver was in a – wait for it – much bigger hit.  If anyone is going to upset Grant it’s the “BlacKkKlansman” star.

ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD – Given to one film’s director, casting director and ensemble cast

Suspiria
Director: Luca Guadagnino
Casting Directors: Avy Kaufman, Stella Savino
Ensemble Cast: Malgosia Bela, Ingrid Caven, Lutz Ebersdorf, Elena Fokina, Mia Goth, Jessica Harper, Dakota Johnson, Gala Moody, Chloë Grace Moretz, Renée Soutendijk, Tilda Swinton, Sylvie Testud, Angela Winkler

Lowdown: Hope Tilda Swinton and Dakota Johnson are on hand or this might feel odd.

BEST DOCUMENTARY (Award given to the director and producer)

Hale County This Morning, This Evening
Director/Producer: RaMell Ross
Producers: Joslyn Barnes, Su Kim

Minding the Gap
Director/Producer: Bing Liu
Producer: Diane Quon

Of Fathers and Sons
Director: Talal Derki
Producers: Hans Robert Eisenhauer, Ansgar Frerich, Eva Kemme, Tobias N. Siebert

On Her Shoulders
Director: Alexandria Bombach
Producers: Hayley Pappas, Brock Williams

Shirkers
Director/Producer: Sandi Tan
Producers: Jessica Levin, Maya Rudolph

Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
Director/Producer: Morgan Neville
Producers: Caryn Capotosto, Nicholas Ma

Who will win: “Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
Who should win:  Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
Upset: “Minding the Gap” or “Shirkers”
Lowdown:  The Fred Rogers documentary is already one of the most successful of all time at the box office.  It’s Oscar snub was shocking and that omission should propel it to a win here.  That being said, Netflix pushed “Shirkers” on its service to millions of cinephile fans and “Minding the Gap” has won numerous critic awards honors.  There is a scenario for an upset here.  Maybe.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM (Award given to the director)

Burning
South Korea
Director: Lee Chang-Dong

The Favourite
United Kingdom
Director: Yorgos Lanthimos

Happy as Lazzaro
Italy
Director: Alice Rohrwacher

Roma
Mexico
Director: Alfonso Cuarón

Shoplifters
Japan
Director: Kore-eda Hirokazu

Who will win: “Roma”
Who should win: “Burning”
Upset: “Burning” or “The Favourite”
Lowdown:  It would be shocking if “Roma” lost, but “Burning” or “The Favourite” could surprise.   They likely won’t, however.

The 2019 Independent Spirit Awards will air live on IFC this Saturday beginning at 2 PM PT, 5 PM ET.